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Showing posts with label V Street. Show all posts
Showing posts with label V Street. Show all posts

Monday, January 26, 2015

ANC1B Committee Votes to Protest License for 24-hour Operation by Satellite Room

Satellite Room, a "hipster diner" located across from the 9:30 Club at 2047 9th Street NW, is asking for a change to its liquor license which would allow 24-hour operation. However, Ian Hilton, one of the co-owners of the Satellite Room, told the liquor-licensing affairs committee of Advisory Neighborhood Commission (ANC) 1B/U Street on January 21 that the intention was to operate 24 hours only on weekends, from opening at 5pm Fridays to "last call" Sunday night.

Satellite Room in 2012 (Photo credit below)
The sought-after changes would not only allow the establishment to stay open all night, but also to serve alcohol, both inside and outside, until 3am. Hilton said the intention was to stop serving alcohol at 2:30 am "last call" and not resume until 11am. Those remaining would be able to order food and remain inside.

The committee voted to recommend to the full ANC a protest for the proposed change in the license until a modified settlement agreement can be worked out between the Satellite Room, the ANC, and a group of objecting neighbors who are resident at The Floridian condo (929 Florida Avenue). The motion was made by ANC1B Commissioner John Green (district 12). Eight of the 11 committee members present voted for the motion, none against, three abstained.

A settlement agreement is a binding legal agreement. In the case of DC liquor licensees, a settlement agreement often deals with hours of operation, noise, trash disposal, parking, and other matters of community interest. A settlement agreement is part of the establishment's liquor license.

In this case, a settlement agreement (see page 4 of a 6-page .pdf here) was entered into in 2011 by the establishment (then called "Satellite Pizza") and the ANC. It allows the establishment to routinely stay open until 3am on the weekends. If the Satellite Room wishes to get DC's Alcoholic Beverage Regulation Administration (ABRA) to consent to the increase their opening hours, they will have to get the ANC to agree, as well as placating the residents of The Floridian who are planning to file a "group of five or more" protest.

Nick Baumann, chair of the ANC1B liquor-licensing affairs committee, said he had received "several emails" objecting to the extended hours. Baumann read one email as representative of all. The email complained of the noise from the Satellite Room's rear outdoor patio, which is legally defined as a "summer garden", even though it is largely concrete.

A married couple were present at the meeting to represent the residents of The Floridian. They reported that about 1/3rd of the units in face the Satellite Room on 9th Stree. They had 16 signatures of Floridian residents against the change in hours, and planned to get more.

"All of the unit owners are bothered by the current state of affairs," one of the Floridian residents said.

"You get the bass, the people talking over the music," she said.

She also said that, although the summer garden has a legal capacity of 24 seats, there are "roughly a hundred people there on many nights".

"Everyone's having difficulty sleeping," she said, adding that residents have to use white noise machines and ear plugs.

In addition, there have been problems with late-night smokers congregating in front of the condo, as well as on-street vomiting near the condo.

Owner Ian Hilton disputed that noise had been a problem, noting that DC authorities had visited his establishment after the neighbors had complained. ABRA had taken readings, and NOT cited his establishment for noise violations, unlike some of his neighbors.

"We've had visits from ABRA," he said. "We've been a compliant owner."

Hilton called the accusations of noise from his establishment "a case of mistaken identity"

The Satellite Room is in ANC1B district 11. The newly-elected ANC1B Commissioner for the district is Robb Hudson. Hudson was present at the meeting, and it seems like the task of trying to negotiate an agreement will fall to him.

The full ANC will probably vote at its next regularly scheduled meeting on the recommendation to protest the application for the liquor license change. The meeting is scheduled for Thursday, February 5, at 7pm, at the Reeves Center (14th and U Streets).

ABRA will have a "roll call" hearing on February 17, 10am, at ABRA headquarters on the fourth floor of the Reeves Center. The ANC and "group of five or more" will have to show up and have standing as a protesting group officially accepted. After that, there will probably be attempts at mediation.

(Photo credit: Borderstan.com, used by permission)

Monday, April 7, 2014

Ward One Task Force on Community and Church Parking Created

Advisory Neighborhood Commission (ANC) 1B/U Street will participate in a Ward One-wide task force on community and church parking. ANC1B Commissioner E. Gail Anderson Holness (district 11) made an announcement about the formation of the task force at the ANC's monthly meeting on April 3.

Florida Avenue Baptist Church
"These problems are not new," Holness said. "They've just become more intense."

Commissioner Holness announced the office of City Councilmember Jim Graham (D-Ward One) had formed the task force to address how to facilitate parking at churches across Ward One on Sundays and at other times of religious worship. Holness said she expected the task force to meet three or four times. The first meeting will be within the next two weeks, and there will be a town meeting. The task force will issue a final report.

"We want the final report to reflect the entire community," Holness said.

Task force membership

Holness said eight Ward One pastors would serve on the task force. She named several of them, including Dr. Earl D. Trent Jr. of Florida Avenue Baptist Church (623 Florida Avenue NW) and Father Patrick Smith of St. Augustine Catholic Church (1419 V Street).

Holness also asked for "a commissioner other than me" to participate in the task force. Commissioner Dyana Forrester (district 06) volunteered to do so. Forrester said she has attended Florida Avenue Baptist Church.

Forrester compared D.C. police tactics concerning churches and parking to suburban police tactics in the same context.

"In Maryland and Viriginia, police help. They don't write tickets," Forrester said.

Holness on the traffic scene

Holness took the opportunity of the announcement to touch on several traffic-related issues. They included bloggers who complain about suburbanites coming on Sunday to park near historical churches, while not complaining about suburbanites who drive into D.C. from Monday to Friday and park on local streets.

She compared weekday commuters to Sunday church visitors: "Many people who come in on the weekends have lived here at one time."

She also commented on bicyclists.

"I'm 57 and I ride a bike," she said.

However, Holness went on, bicyclists received too much consideration because they do not bicycle in inclement weather.

"You don't see bikes when it snows, when it's raining," she said.

Concerning the historic churches in Ward One, Holness said: "They were here before many of the new residents came. They will be here after they are gone."

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

1450 V Street (Portner Place): "We Don't Want to Be near Partygoers"

The entire board of the tenants' association of Portner Place (1450 V Street NW) turned out at the March 25 meeting of Advisory Neighborhood Commission (ANC) 1B/U Street. They were there to tell the ANC the design of the proposed development was OK with them.

"We want to be on V Street," the President of the Portner Place tenants' association said. "We don't want to be near partygoers."

An image from the February meeting
Portner Place is now a group of garden apartments next to the Reeves Center (14th and U Street), on a piece of land that stretches from U to V Street. The proposal is to raze the garden apartments, and in its place build two separate high-rise buildings. Facing V Street would be 96 units of affordable housing. Facing U Street would be 270 units of "market rate" (i.e., much more expensive) housing. The buildings would share a common back wall but not a common entrance.

This design led a member of ANC1B's Design Review Committee to say the project "implied segregation" -- see SALM blog post of March 3.

But this is what the residents want

"Stop telling us what we are," a Portner Place tenants' association Board member said. "Let us tell you."

The five women of the tenants' association board made very clear that separate buildings was the design they wanted.

"We're happy with the amenities and support the massing," one said.

Board members said it was now very difficult to maintain security on Portner Place, and they looked forward to living in a building that was more secure.

"Portner Place is the building we deserve," a Board member said. "We've waited such a long time."

Presenting again

A team from Somerset Development Company, led by Principal Nancy L. Hooff, made an abbreviated presentation to the ANC. It was the second time this month Hooff and the team presented. The first presentation was at ANC1B's meeting of March 6, but the ANC could not vote on the matter because not enough Commissioners were present to establish a quorum -- see SALM blog post of March 10. ANC Chair James Turner (Commissioner for district 09) asked for an abbreviated presentation for the benefit of commissioners who had not attended the earlier meeting.

Commissioner Juan Lopez (district 07) asked where the residents will go during the construction of the high-rise.

"We own a lot of properties," Hooff said. "The idea is to find one or two buildings. We will master lease 47 units somewhere."

They need an endorsement now

Somerset Development was asking for ANC1B's endorsement before they pitched the project to D.C.'s Historic Preservation Review Board (HPRB). The hearing at HPRB was scheduled for less than 48 hours after the ANC meeting. This meant the ANC would have to produce a document of support at faster-than-normal speed.

"We'd really appreciate something by tomorrow," Hooff said.

The ANC voted unanimously to endorse the concept and massing of the project.

"I hope we allayed your fears," Hooff said.

The blog District Source has reported on Somerset Development's subsequent appearance before the HPRB. The reception was generally favorable.

See the HPRB staff report on Portner Place here.

Monday, March 24, 2014

ANC1B "Great Weight" Fails Meridian Hill Property Owners

Advisory Neighborhood Commission (ANC) 1B/U Street twice voted last year to support the exclusion of individual properties from the soon-to-be-created Meridian Hill Historic District. However, D.C's Historic Preservation Review Board (HPRB) did not agree with the ANC. It voted on March 6 for the properties to be included in the historic district.

Augustana Church
According to an article starting on page one of the March 19 edition of the Dupont Current newspaper (32-page .pdf available here), Kim Williams of HPRB staff persuaded the board to include both 95-year-old Augustana Church (2100 New Hampshire Avenue NW) and a row of 1930's-era townhouses (2313, 2315, 2317, and 2319 15th Street) as contributing parts of the historic district. This will make it more difficult for the property owners to renovate, modify, or demolish the properties -- see HPRB page for homeowners here.

ANC1B voted to support the exclusion of Augustana Church and the row houses at its regular monthly meeting of November 2013 -- see SALM blog posts of November 11, 2013, and October 30, 2013, respectively.

Agencies of the D.C. government, including the HPRB, are required by Section 1-309.10 (a)(3)(A) of the D.C. Code to give "great weight" to ANC decisions. This means agencies must acknowledge receiving ANC recommendations and respond to them in writing. This means it is often easier for DC agencies to agree with ANC decisions, since disagreeing with an ANC may mean having to compose a well-reasoned response explaining why the "great weight" has been disregarded. However, there is no obligation to agree with ANC recommendations.

2313, 2315, 2317, and 2319 15th Street
According to an HPRB document (page 41 of a 119-page .pdf here), the 15th Street row houses were originally on a list of "non-contributing" buildings to the district. It is easier to get permission for renovations and modifications for non-contributing buildings in a historic district.

However, the buildings face, and are visable from, Meridian Hill Park across 15th Street. Williams apparently convinced the Board to remove them from the list, saying they are "an important contributor", according to the Current.

In the same article, HPRB members said inclusion in the historic district would not present insurmountable hurdles to homeowners. Members said the review process is speedy and few requests are shot down. Churches are often given special consideration, a Board member said.

See the recommendation by Historic Preservation Office that Meridian Hill be designated a historic district here.

See design guidelines for the new historic district here.

Monday, March 10, 2014

ANC1B Again Fails to Have a Quorum

For the second time in four months, Advisory Neighborhood Commission (ANC) 1B/U Street failed to have a quorum for its regular monthly meeting. Only five of 11 sitting Commissioners attended the meeting on Thursday, March 6. Six were necessary to have a quorum.

About 45 developers, architects, homeowners, businesspeople, and members of the community were left waiting, hoping an absent Commissioner would show up so the Commission could take binding votes on the matters on the agenda. The meeting, which began at seven, eventually broke up at 9pm.

Not enough for a quorum
The following Commissioners attended the meeting: Marc Morgan (district 01), Deborah Thomas (district 04), Ricardo Reinoso (district 05), James Turner (district 09), and Zahra Jilani (district 12).

The following Commissioners did not attend: Jeremy Leffler (district 02), Sedrick Muhammed (district 03), Dyana Forester (district 06), Juan Lopez (district 07), Tony Norman (district 10), E. Gail Anderson Holness (district 11)

Commissioner Emily Washington (district 08) announced her resignation at last month's meeting. She is moving out of her ANC district.

In December 2013, ANC1B also failed to have a quorum when a meeting was held on the same day as a Christmas party for ANC Commissioners -- see SALM blog post for December 9, 2013.

Recent attendance record of ANC1B Commissioners

Below is record of ANC Commissioners' attendance record for the last four monthly meetings, based on my observation. Just like airlines, I define "late" as arriving more than 15 minutes behind schedule. Meetings usually last between two and three hours.
  • Morgan (01): Three present, one absent
  • Leffler (02): Two present, two absent
  • Muhammed (03): One present, three absent
  • Thomas (04): One present, three absent
  • Reinoso (05): Four present
  • Forester (06): One present, two absent, one late*
  • Lopez (07): Two present, one absent, one late**
  • Washington (resigned, 08): Two present, one absent
  • Turner (09): Three present, one absent
  • Norman (10): Three present, one absent
  • Anderson Holness (11): Two absent, two late***
  • Zilani (12): Four present
* arrived 20 minutes late, left same meeting after 90 minutes
** arrived 25 minutes late
*** arrived 90 minutes late twice

March meeting: making the best of it

To productively fill the time while hoping in vain that another Commissioner would eventually arrive, ANC1B Chair James Turner asked newly-appointed ANC1B committee chairs to speak and take questions from the audience about their work. Alcohol-policy committee Chair Nick Baumann, Transportation Committee Chair Ben Klemens, and Design Review Committee Chair Lela Winston spoke.

This turned out to be a surprisingly effective use of time. The committee chairs outlined the responsibilities and current concerns of their committees. Members of the community spoke up to ask questions about how the process worked. Several people who seemed somewhat baffled by the proceedings received clarification. One urged the committee and community members to use fewer abbreviations and jargon, so novice members of the audience could more easily understand.

After that, several members of the community who had hoped to get ANC endorsement on various projects spoke up. The longest presentation was by the developers of Portner Place (1450 V Street NW), who sought ANC endorsement for their appearance before D.C. Historic Preservation Review Board (HPRB) later this month. The ANC Commissioners in attendance asked about the concerns raised when the developers presented before the Design Review Committee on February 26 -- see SALM blog post of March 3.

Members of the current tenants' committee of Portner Place spoke up in favor of the design and plans to move families out while construction went on. The commissioners in attendance seemed to approve of the development.

In addition, the aspiring proprietor of Peace Lounge (2632 Georgia Avenue) and a homeowner from the 1300 block of S Street also wished to tell the committee they needed ANC endorsement this month for their projects, because they would soon be appearing before various DC government bodies. Commissioner Turner suggested they could get letters from their ANC district representatives praising their projects and explaining why the ANC failed to vote. While this would not carry the "great weight" of a conventional ANC decision, Turner said, it might help.

At the end of the meeting, Commissioner Turner announced there would be a special election to fill the place of Commissioner Washington, and urged interested members of the public to pick up nomination papers from the D.C. Board of Elections and Ethics. No date for the special election has been set.

Monday, March 3, 2014

1450 V Street (Portner Place): Tepid Endorsement by ANC1B

The vote was 2-1 in favor with five abstentions.

It was not a resounding vote of confidence for the proposal by Somerset Development Company to develop a two-part apartment complex on the current site of Portner Place apartments (1450 V Street NW). Portner Place abuts the Reeves Center (14th and U Streets) to Portner's east.

Eric Colbert presents
The Design Review Committee of Advisory Neighborhood Commission (ANC) 1B/U Street, meeting on February 26, was skeptical about the size of the building. In addition, a committee member said the project "implied segregation" because the 96 units of affordable housing would face V Street on the north side of the lot, while 270 units of market-rate housing would be in a building facing U Street on the south side of the lot. The two buildings would share a common wall but not a common entrance.

Nancy L. Hooff, Principal of Somerset Development Company, led the presentation team, which included architect Eric Colbert from Eric Colbert & Associates. They seek ANC1B endorsement of the project before they present to D.C.'s Historic Preservation Review Board (HPRB). The project must go before the HPRB because it is located within the boundaries of the U Street Historic District.

Rich housing, poor housing

As it stands now, Portner Place is 48 units of Section 8 (i.e., low income) four-story garden apartments. It was built in 1978-79. It is located midblock between the Reeves Center on 14th Street and the Dunbar Apartments facing 15th Street.

Representatives of the tenants of Portner Place appeared at the meeting to confirm the tenants were on board for the renovation and understood the details. The tenants, it was reported, willingly gave up their rights under D.C. Tenant Opportunity to Purchase Act (TOPA) so the project can move forward. As proposed, the eight-story, 70-foot-tall V Street apartment building will double the number of available affordable housing units. The units will be priced to be affordable for a family of four whose income is about $52,000 a year. 

The U Street side will be 11 stories, or 105 feet, high. There will be retail space on the ground floor of this side only, according to project drawings.

Each side will have separate underground parking -- 24 spaces on the V Street side, 172 spaces on the U Street side.

Committee unenthusiastic

The developers promised to find 48 housing units for the currently residents of Portner Place, to help them move, and to help them move back once the project is finished. They said they were currently looking at housing in Ward Four.

ANC Commissioner Tony Norman (district 10) was skeptical. 

"I don't know of a project yet where they've moved the residents and they've returned back," he said.

Norman and several other members of the committee disapproved of the height of the building.

"The height is a little bit worrying," said ANC Commissioner Zahra Jilani (district 12). Portner Place is in Jilani's ANC district.

The presenters pointed out that existing neighboring buildings were taller.

Another committee member worried about "implied segregation".

He said: "You have wonderful intentions but I have to sit to get used to that," meaning, the separation of the affordable and market-rate apartments.

Presenters defended their choice saying each building would have a different set of amenities for different types of tenants. For example, the affordable half would have a roof-top playground and a computer center for residents. They also said they had given residents several options and the tenants had agreed to this design. Tenants' representatives at the meeting confirmed this claim.

"We gave them all the options. They chose that option," Nancy Hooff said.

There was a motion to endorse the concept and massing, but not the detailed design, of the project. There were only two votes to endorse, but since there was only one "no" vote, the motion carried.

The project is scheduled for a hearing before the HPRB on March 28, the presenters reported. The presenters may have to appear before the Design Review committee again for endorsement of detailed design and then appear again before HPRB. They will likely have to request ANC endorsement of zoning variances and/or special exceptions as well.

Meanwhile, this recommendation will probably come up for approval by the full ANC at its next meeting, scheduled for Thursday, March 6, at 7pm, at the Reeves Center.

The Meridian Hill Neighborhood Association (MHNA) heard a presentation from Colbert on Portner Place at its January 21 meeting. Details are available here. MHNA also posted the project's HPRB documents (including drawings and artist's conceptions of the buildings) online -- an 11-page .pdf available here.

The blog District Source has also reported this story.

Thursday, February 27, 2014

2100 Vermont Ave: 19 Microunits, No Parking

Richard Foster Architects has proposed a design for a six-story mixed-use building at 2100 Vermont Avenue NW. It would contain 19 rental units of between 430 and 716 square feet apiece. There will be no parking spaces. Residents will promise not to seek an on-street resident parking permit as a condition of their lease.

The property today as seen from V Street
The Design Review Committee of Advisory Neighborhood Commission (ANC) 1B/U Street heard a presentation from Richard Foster Architects about this proposed building at its meeting of February 25. The presenters are in search of at least four zoning reliefs and special exceptions from D.C. Board of Zoning Adjustment (BZA). If ANC1B endorses the zoning-related requests, they will probably travel more easily through the bureaucracy.

However, the initial reaction of the committee was less than enthusiastic.

Parking and other issues

The presenters described the 3,000-square-foot lot as "landlocked", meaning that all sides abutted either another building or a sidewalk without a curb cut for a parking ramp. Even if a sidewalk curb cut were made, it would be impossible to design a ramp to basement parking that would be wide enough for a car and also fit on the compact lot.

In addition to requiring tenants not to seek a residential parking permit, the presenters said they would coordinate with D.C authorities to put a block on the address at the permit-issuing office.

As the law stands today, the building would be required to have one parking space for every three residential units.

The committee asked about bike storage at the property. The presenters said bike storage was planned in the basement. To access the storage, the committee pointed out, tenants would have to carry their bikes through the lobby, through a doorway, down a circular staircase, and through another doorway, to access the storage area.

The ground floor would have room for 2,100 square feet of retail space on the ground floor, with doorways facing both V Street and Vermont Avenue.

The plan is for 19 rental units in the building. There would four units each on floors two through five. They would be between 430 and 490 square feet. On the sixth floor, there would be three apartments, the largest of which would be 716 square feet.

BZA approval will be required because the building is slightly (four inches) taller, and covers slightly more (1.2%) of the lot, than zoning permits. In addition, the building as designed would not meet requirements for a rear yard for retail, and for roof setback.

Committee vetoes design

The Design Review Committee was reluctant to endorse the zoning-related requests. The members of the committee simply did not like the design, which was largely floor-to-ceiling windows, broken up by six-floor-high white columns. When time came to make a motion about the proposal, no one on the committee wanted to.

"You are packing as much as you can into a tiny site," said committee member Joel Heisey.

"Is this viable as a smaller building?" he asked.

The presenters said it was not.

Heisey compared the design to a "1960s office park building". Other committee members seemed to agree the design was lacking, especially the exterior "skin" of the building.

After some discussion, one of the presenters said: "We are more than willing to look at some skin alterations."

The presenters said they do not yet have a date for their BZA hearing, so there would be time to reconsider the design and return with an altered design.

The next scheduled meeting of ANC1B's Design Review Committee is on Monday, March 17, at 6:30pm, at the Thurgood Marshall Center (1816 12th Street).

(Photo credit: Google Street View)

Monday, November 11, 2013

Church Joins Exodus from Future Historic District

Augustana Lutheran Church (2100 New Hampshire Avenue NW) has successfully pleaded with Advisory Neighborhood Commission (ANC) 1B/U Street to be, in effect, excluded from the soon-to-be-created Meridian Hill Historic District. The Church will be designated as "non-contributing" to the future historic district.

Historic district approved -- with exclusions

At V and New Hampshire NW
The last-minute plea came just before ANC1B voted to endorse the historic district overall, including the designation of certain buildings within the district as non-contributing. The vote took place at ANC1B's regular monthly meeting on November 7.

Property owners of most buildings within a historic district must obtain the permission of D.C.'s Historic Preservation Review Board (HPRB) before taking on a wide variety of renovations, including nearly any to the exterior of a property. If a property is designated as non-contributing within a historic district, however, the owner has a much greater variety of activity which can be carried out without HPRB approval.

Of the 65 buildings in the proposed district, there will be fifteen other properties proposed to be designated as non-contributing within the future Meridian Hill Historic District, according to Kim Williams of D.C.'s Historic Preservation Office (HPO), who testified at the meeting.

These may include four single-family homes along on the 2300 block of 15th Street, facing Meridian Hill Park. Representatives of the single-family homes got the support of ANC1B's Design Review Committee for exclusion at its meeting of October 28. This was the subject of the October 30 SALM blog post.

The full ANC's endorsement of the historic district followed the Design Review Committee's recommendation to exclude the four single-family homes.

Testimony from Augustana

The Reverend John Kidd, Pastor of the Augustana Lutheran Church, and counsel Meghan Meier appeared before ANC1B to ask for the exclusion. They gave two reasons. The first reason: the church was not part of the vision of Mary Henderson, the driving force behind the creation of the Meridian Hill district more than 100 years ago. This statement is difficult to evaluate, but the church seems to date from 1915, according to documents presented at the Design Review committee meeting. This was a time when Henderson was intensely involved in the creation and improvement of every aspect of the Meridian Hill district.

The second reason: the church is not visible from Meridian Hill Park, nor is it visible from 16th Street.

"We are sandwiched between two apartment buildings," Reverend Kidd said.

One of Augstana Lutheran's neighbors is Meridian Towers Apartments (2112 New Hampshire Avenue). This multi-story apartment building, built in 1964, is also designated as non-contributing.

In addition, Kidd and Meier indicated being part of a historic district would burden the church with additional responsibilities that it could not afford to carry out.

The vote

Commissioner Ricardo Reinoso (district 05) made the motion to support the Meridian Hill Historic District with the exclusion of the non-contributing properties, including the four single-family houses and the Lutheran church. Both the homes and the church are in Reinoso's district.

Of the twelve ANC1B Commissioners, the vote was five votes in favor of endorsing the proposed new historic district with exclusions, and two opposed. One of the "no" votes came from Commissioner Dyana Forester (district 06), who said she felt local residents had not been adequately notified about the district.

Three Commissioners were completely absent from the meeting, and a fourth arrived over 45 minutes late, after the vote was taken.

ANC1B Vice-chair E. Gail Anderson-Holness (district 11), who was presiding, did not vote. She explained at another point in the meeting that her practice was not to vote when she is presiding, except in the case of a tie vote.

In addition to ANC district 1B, the proposed historic district will also fall in part into three other ANC districts. Reinoso reported the other three districts -- ANC 1A/Columbia Heights, 1C/Adams Morgan, and 1D/Mount Pleasant -- have all voted to support the district.

The four endorsements will now go to HPRB, which is expected to approve the new historic district in general. The fate of individual buildings is not so easy to predict.